Allred within 5% of Cruz among all Texas likely voters and leads Cruz by 5% among Hispanic likely voters.

(Dallas, Texas, April 16, 2024) — Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 12 percentage points among likely voters in Texas, according to new polling from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF). More surprising, however, is Trump’s strength with Hispanic likely voters, where he leads Biden by 4 percentage points, 41% to 37%, driven largely by evangelical Hispanics and Hispanic males.

The survey, which was conducted between April 5 and April 10 among a representative sample of 1,600 Texas likely voters, has an overall margin of error of 2.45%.

Solely with respect to the Hispanic oversample, the survey maintains a margin of error of 4.88%, making the TxHPF’s Hispanic data, the most detailed in Texas.

“Over the most recent election cycles, Texas Hispanics have shown a growing willingness to consider, and ultimately vote for, Republican candidates, especially at the Presidential level,” said TxHPF CEO Jason Villalba. “This, however, is the first time we have seen a Republican statewide candidate attract a majority of Texas likely Hispanic voters. Trump’s appeal to Hispanic evangelicals and men has helped him cobble together a level of support from Hispanics not seen since George W. Bush.”

“As evidenced by some of the data we have seen recently in historically Democrat strongholds of Texas, Democrats can no longer assume that they will automatically receive an overwhelming majority of the Hispanic vote,” said former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, a member of the TxHPF Board of Directors. “While Democrats continue to see strengthening electoral support resulting from urbanization and with more progressive voters moving to Texas from other parts of the country, the Hispanic vote is clearly in play. Both political parties must vie for the vote of Hispanics. The party that comes out on top in the coming battles will hold political power in Texas for a generation.”

According to the TxHPF’s survey, the race for U.S. Senate in Texas is taking a much different trajectory than the race for president. Among all likely voters in Texas, Democratic challenger Congressman Colin Allred is within 5 percentage points of two-term U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. In an inverse of the presidential race, Congressman Allred leads Sen. Cruz by 5 percentage points among Texas Hispanic likely voters, 44% to 39 %.

“Senator Cruz is significantly underperforming Trump in all major voter categories around the state,” added Villalba. “Conversely, Allred continues to over perform the support received by President Biden in Texas.”

According to TxHPF Chief Information and Analytics Officer, Dr. Mark P. Jones, “while today a Trump victory over Biden in Texas looks to be a foregone conclusion, Cruz is facing a much more competitive challenge from Allred, a race that is certain to garner national attention as one of only two contests where Democrats have any hope of flipping a Republican-held seat as they attempt to retain control of the U.S. Senate.”

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About the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. The Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

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